Promotion Effectiveness Benchmark
Monthly tracking of UK retailers
Every month Accuris collects public data on 150 products across 10 categories and uses its promotional performance benchmark data to estimate the performance of Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury and Morrisons.
© 2023 Accuris. Duplication permitted only with explicit and visible reference to the source, using "Accuris Promotion Effectiveness Benchmark (www.accuris.com)". The data provided is a simulation and extrapolation and is for directional use only. It is based on publicly available data for 150+ products across 10 categories and Accuris benchmark data, which aggregates sales of multiple products and promotions while never disclosing confidential data. Accuris shall not be held legally responsible for errors or inaccuracies in the information provided, and any decisions made based on this information are at the sole risk and discretion of the user, with Accuris bearing no liability for resulting damages.
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Updated monthly, different categories reported every month.
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Gross uplift %
Increase of sales volume thanks to a promotion, expressed as a percentage of baseline volume (see "base sales")
Real (short term) growth of the category, as a result of an event, during the promotional period, not compensated by any of the switching (cannibalisation, competitive switching, chain switching, stock piling).
Switching of sales as a result of an event, between competitive retailers/channels/stores
Sales level that would have been obtained without the promotion.
Accuris models are designed to analyse sales impact of “events”. They decompose sales volumes into portions that are explained either through marketing activities, environmental changes or by the general market position of a brand. This means that we in effect simulates sales data in such a way, that sales are decomposed into a part reflecting sales that would have been realised without marketing campaigns (events), and other parts that reflect sales generated by those campaigns. The sales level that reflects the long-term market position is referred to as “baseline”. “Baseline sales volume” is defined as the level of sales a brand would achieve, if no sales-enhancing activities (advertising campaigns, trade promotions, or any other marketing mix events) took place. The Accuris models distinguish between the impact of a marketing/promotional event and other factors influencing sales. Variables controlled by a marketer are separated from variables that are beyond his control. The latter are called “environmental variables” and can include weather effects, generic growth of a retail channel, lifecycle effects, seasonality, etc. The Accuris models simulate baseline sales volume at the brand / channel / period level. Unlike other solutions, Accuris calculates a dynamic baseline. Each baseline value is calculated separately for each time period, brand and channel and reflects the specific environmental circumstances specific to these parameters.
Source of business ®
The Accuris Source of Business ® provides a complete insight in the origin, or “source” of sales volumes. It is a full decomposition of sales volumes, explaining how volume is attracted through marketing campaigns, and how it is lost because of competitive campaigns. It allows a user to manage campaigns in terms of their ability to steal volume from competitors and their ability to add net sales to a brand and to its category. Source of Business ® decomposes incremental volumes from a marketing event into five sources: cannibalisation, competitive switching, retailer switching, stock piling and short term category expansion.
Source of Business ® is registered Accuris trade mark that refers both to our sales decomposition concept and to our model. It is integrated in the Accuris AEP/System (Promotion effectiveness) and MME/System (marketing mix effectiveness) applications as well as being used in consulting and analytical projects. It helps to identify category growth levers, elasticity of marketing mix elements and the impact of any marketing event on a brand’s position and on the category. It allows a better allocation of marketing resources to generate net growth and minimise negative side-effects such as cannibalisation.
Switching of sales as a result of an event, between products from the same Supplier/Manufacturer.
Switching of sales as a result of an event, between products from different Suppliers/Manufacturers.
Sales that would have been realised after the event, pulled forward because of the promotion (forward buying) (also referred to as “time switching” or “time shifting”).
Non promoted baseline volume
The part of the base that is sold without promotional support.
Promoted baseline volume
This is the portion of the baseline volume that was sold with a promotion, representing shoppers that bought the product on promotion but who would have bought it anyway.
Total volume sales
Aggregation of incremental volume and base sales. It may be decomposed into non promotional volume and promotional volume or into total baseline volume and gross incremental volume.
Non promotional volume
Any units, litres, Kg, cases sold without a promotion.
Any units, litres, Kg, cases sold with a promotion.
Total baseline volume
Volume that would have been sold without a promotion anyway.
Gross incremental volume
Volume (units, litres, kg) that would not have been sold without a promotion and is therefore incremental also simply referred to as “Incremental volume”.
Additional sales as a result of a promotion (additional for the promoted product(s)).
Track how shoppers switch between offers on a daily basis and measure the revenue streams they generate
What we do
Accuris provides revenue optimisation services and consulting. We have been using machine learning - mainly Bayesian statistics - since the early 2000s. We use all your available data to detect how shoppers switch between brands, stores and segments. Our Source of Business® model explains revenue streams generated for each promo and media campaign and for new product introductions and assortment changes.
Why it matters
Revenue indicators based on gross rather than net impact will lead to sub-optimal or even wrong decisions. Net effects strip out back-and-forth switching and other false positives. Promotions, price increases and new listings can lead to strong revenue increases in gross terms, but net results may be much lower or negative, thereby misleading decision making.
What other agencies do
Data providers and consulting agencies do not integrate all required data sources to get the full picture of how shoppers behave. They tend to use static methods or once-a-year regression approaches to explain market dynamics. This was perhaps sufficient a decade ago but is not enough for modern markets and categories where shoppers switch between offers on a daily basis.