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Keurig acquires JDE: What the $18bn Coffee Merger Means for RGM


The coffee aisle has rarely been as turbulent as it is today. In just two years, European and UK shoppers have seen retail coffee prices climb 15–25%, private labels gain share, and an unprecedented round of stand-offs between suppliers and supermarkets. And this week, the landscape shifted again: Keurig Dr Pepper announced an $18 billion acquisition of JDE Peet’s, with plans to spin off a global coffee giant worth ~$16 billion in revenue.

Against this backdrop, revenue growth managers (RGMs) in coffee face a familiar question: how do you protect margins and keep consumers loyal when costs surge and competitors consolidate?




1. Major Trends Brewing

  • Supply volatility: Arabica and robusta costs doubled between 2023 and 2024. Weather and geopolitics have made bean sourcing unpredictable, and while futures eased slightly in 2025, volatility is now the baseline.

  • Retail friction: Several chains delisted major brands (most visibly JDE’s) during 2024–25 price negotiations. Promotions were throttled back, and retailers absorbed part of the hikes to shield shoppers.

  • Consumer adaptation: Volumes dipped as prices rose. Some consumers traded down to supermarket brands, others rationed their consumption. Yet premiumisation continues: pods, beans, and sustainable blends still command growth.

  • Segment split: Packaged coffee (pods, beans, instant) remains the bulk of sales, but RTD iced coffees are the fastest-growing, especially among younger demographics.



2. Strategies to Increase Value per Serve

  • Single-serve formats continue to command a huge premium per cup – a classic “razor-and-blade” strategy.

  • Premium storytelling – origin, sustainability, limited editions – justifies higher price ladders.

  • Pack-price architecture matters: smaller packs and multipacks both nudge consumers toward higher unit pricing.

  • Innovation pays: Lavazza’s Tablì compressed-coffee tabs show how new formats reset the price-per-cup benchmark.



3. Pricing and Promotions – The Push and Pull

  • 2024–25 saw two waves of hikes: first gradual, then sudden double-digit jumps after hard retailer negotiations.

  • Promotions shifted from deep half-price offers to shallower discounts or loyalty-only deals.

  • Expect by 2026 more personalised promotions – targeted coupons, digital loyalty rewards – and less reliance on mass blanket discounts.



4. What Next for RGM in Coffee?

  • 2026 will be about stabilisation. Price floors will likely hold, with only modest further increases.

  • Mix will drive growth. Pods and RTD formats will expand share, helping average revenue per serve.

  • Competition intensifies. Nestlé and the new KDP/JDE coffee company will dominate; Lavazza, Illy and others will protect niches. Private label will keep the pressure on mainstream brands.

  • Innovation in RGM. Subscription models, direct-to-consumer sales, AI-driven elasticity modelling, and more surgical promotions will reshape how brands extract value.



5. The Accuris Angle

At Accuris, we see three imperatives for coffee manufacturers in this environment:

  1. Find the true pricing thresholds. Identify where consumers accept higher value-per-serve and where elasticity bites.

  2. Optimise promotions for incrementality. Measure whether that “two for £x” offer is driving real new consumption or just stockpiling.

  3. Reset planning annually. A zero-based RGM approach ensures old promo calendars and price ladders do not dictate today’s strategy.

Our analytics help RGM teams decompose results – distinguishing category expansion from cannibalisation, or genuine consumer trade-up from forced downtrading – so that every pricing and promo decision contributes to profitable growth.



Final Sip

Coffee remains resilient: consumers may grumble, but they rarely skip their daily cup. For RGM professionals, the opportunity lies in selling smarter, not just more – aligning pack, price, promotion and innovation to capture maximum value from every brew.

The consolidation wave, the shift to single-serve and RTD, and smarter promotions all point to one conclusion: 2026 will not be about chasing volume, but about extracting sustainable value per serve.

 
 
 

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