Decision framework for Christmas and end-of-year promotions

During the Christmas trading period, demand patterns shift sharply and competition becomes more aggressive. This decision framework helps choosing when and how to promote and how to avoid devaluing your brands.

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Align your plans with the dynamics of peak-season in FMCG. Let this checklist be a help.

Question	Guidance	Rationale
Is participation recommended?	Yes. In categories with high gifting reliance or strong competitor activity, not participating sacrifices share (some categories like non food sell less - you can take a holiday from promotions). A presence is required even for premium brands—use balanced, medium discounts.	Shoppers expect deals in December. Absent brands are ignored.
What is your market position?	Market leaders gain most from Christmas trading even without heavy spending. Use targeted, high-ROI promotions: premium SKUs, gifting formats, limited editions. Followers may benefit from tactical gaps later in December when leaders sell out.	Category demand naturally flows towards leaders and premium tiers during gifting seasons. Capitalising on that flow is more efficient than fighting it.
Is the category expandable during Christmas?	Alcohol, confectionery, cheese, and festive foods genuinely grow; invest behind consumption and gifting missions. For less expandable categories (commodities, everyday items, non food dailies), focus on availability and simplicity rather than aggressive discounts.	Shoppers consume and gift what they buy, so incremental volume is real. For non-expandable categories, promotions often shift timing rather than grow demand.
Can you win the visibility battle?	Fight hard for visibility: end-caps, gondola ends, eye-level space, and secondary displays. If rivals have locked key space, shift support online or into retailer media you can control. Consider early activation before space becomes limited.	Christmas is the most visibility-constrained period of the year. Without physical prominence, even strong promotions underperform.
What to promote?	Promote your hero product. Other times of the year you can put forward other SKUs. Now your hero product needs to shine.	It's Christmas, how would you dress up??
How broad should your promotional range be?	Offer stacked promotions across formats, pack sizes, and variants. Give shoppers a promotional choice and ensure at least one hero SKU is compelling at all times.	Traffic is high and shoppers browse more; wider choice captures both premium trade-up and price-sensitive missions.
What discount depth should you use?	Medium discounts work best, particularly for premium or gifting brands. Avoid very deep cuts unless clearing stock. Use value cues rather than aggressive price erosion.	Shoppers are in an upgrading mindset but still want a deal. Too deep a cut damages premium perception during the most brand-emotional period.
How early should you activate?	Launch promotions earlier than usual. Late November for gifting categories, early December for consumables. Maintain momentum as Christmas approaches.	Christmas baskets are built over multiple weeks, not only in the final stretch. Early presence improves conversion.
Is your supply chain ready for peak demand?	Protect availability at all costs; allocate inventory to priority SKUs. Avoid over-fragmentation and back risky NPD only if space and stock are secured.	Out-of-stocks erode both sales and promotional ROI. Lost festive shoppers rarely return to fulfil the same mission.
Can you enhance the festive experience?	Use festive packaging, limited editions, on-pack gifting cues, QR codes for recipes, or pairing suggestions. Reinforce quality cues at POS even during promotions.	Emotional appeal and ease of gifting increase conversion, especially when products are visually festive.
Will stockpiling distort results?	For Christmas-consumed categories, stockpiling is limited and safe. For everyday items, expect timing effects and avoid over-investment.	Christmas categories generate genuine incremental uplift, whereas non-festive categories shift consumption timing.

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https://www.accuris.com/lp-promodiagnostics2025

Have a look and let us know if you would like to reserve a slot.

And remember, before you can build a strategy to drive true category growth and "Upgrading," you must first understand your 'Source of Business®'.