Public Holidays: Should You Promote When Everyone Else Does?

This post is taken from the series [RGM INSIGHTS] #3

Public holidays in May – from May Day in the United Kingdom and Labour Day across continental Europe to Memorial Day in the United States – compress five weeks of consumption into four. In grocery aisles this translates into visible surges: during the most recent UK bank-holiday weekend burger volumes rose thirteen per cent, while beer and wine sales climbed nine and twenty-one per cent respectively. With the checkout beeping faster, the instinctive response is to “support demand” with deeper deals. Yet when every competitor is shouting, adding your own megaphone can be a very expensive way of staying at yesterday’s share.

What the numbers really say

Promotional uplift is mainly about switching, not incremental consumption. 

Most of what you will be selling during a public holiday week is not consumed additionally. Consumers are stock piling and more importantly switching between brands and products. Accuris’ latest Promotion Effectiveness Benchmark shows that 80% of the additional volume generated by a typical promotion comes from shoppers who were about to buy something else: 68% from rival brands and 12% cannibalised from the rest of your own range (Accuris Benchmark UK, 2024).

“Fighting fire with fire” works only under strict conditions. 

When your key competitor promotes, you can neutralise the share loss – provided you match both the face value of the deal and the in-store visibility (feature space, secondary displays, digital banners). Miss either lever and the defensive promotion leaks profit without stemming the outflow of shoppers.

Peak periods benefit brand leaders. 

Further evidence shows that during peak consumption periods shoppers switch towards promotions for market-leading brands. That halo effect is worth protecting if you already lead; if you trail, it is an expensive moment to buy share.

Stockpiling increases for all categories. 

The number of store visits during shortened weeks is higher and spend per trip is higher as well. But some of this surge is compensated by consumers stocking up for the weeks after the promo, when they would otherwise pay full price. Non-expandable categories such as detergents and paper products are also seeing a surge in demand, compensated, however, by stock piling to cover consumption in the weeks after.

80% of a promotional uplift is caused by shoppers switching between products of the same supplier (cannibalisation) or between competing brands, without purchasing more than they had planned. Source: Accuris UK Benchmark Study 2024.

Decision framework

Question	Guidance	Rationale
How promotional is your category today?	In high-promotion categories (e.g., soft drinks in the United Kingdom, yoghurt in France), expect retaliation. Plan to defend with equivalent depth and display if share protection is paramount. In low-promotion categories (e.g., infant nutrition), consider banking the natural demand and saving spend for a quieter week.	The marginal return on a discount collapses when switching dominates incremental consumption.
What is your market position?	Market leaders usually gain disproportionally in holiday weeks even without extra spend, so a finely targeted promotion (limited packs, premium SKUs) often maximises ROI. Challengers may be better served by waiting for clearer air.	Category-wide demand is already flowing towards leaders and premium tiers.
Is the category expandable?	Beer, ice cream and snacks truly grow during sunny long weekends; shoppers largely consume what they buy. Commodities like detergent merely shift timing. Allocate funds accordingly.	Stockpiling risk erodes the net lift once the holiday ends.
Can you win the visibility battle?	If fixture space and end-caps are locked by rivals, a price cut alone seldom rescues share. Redirect budget to a later window or to digital channels you can own.	Visibility parity is a prerequisite for defensive promotions.
Do you have the data infrastructure?	Deploy predictive models that isolate switching from genuine incrementality and simulate post-promotion dips.	Accuris’ platform gives users SKU-level read-through on cannibalisation, halo and pantry-fill.

Executing the chosen play

1. If you promote – compress mechanics. Shoppers are time-poor; multi-buy ladders underperform simple “save” flags in bank-holiday weeks. Ensure availability in convenience formats, as top-up missions spike when footfall fragments across airports, service stations and city-centre stores.
   

2. If you hold price but amplify media – lean on occasion-based creative (“Back-garden ready in ten minutes”) to ride the consumption narrative without the margin hit. Geo-targeted digital out-of-home around travel corridors converts well in these windows.
   

3. If you sit out entirely – communicate it internally. Sales teams under pressure to hit volume miss the strategic intent unless you quantify the expected profit protection. Run a “momentum tracker” so you can redeploy saved spend into the first lull week of June when shopper attention rebounds.

Key Takeaways and Conclusions

Our analysis re-frames promotional planning during public holidays as a data-driven investment decision rather than an instinctive response. When evaluating whether to promote during these high-demand weeks, revenue managers should approach the choice as a strategic capital deployment opportunity guided by analytics, not by habit.

We recommend basing this decision on five critical factors:

1. Evaluate your category's promotional environment - In highly promotional categories, be prepared to defend with equivalent depth and display if protecting market share is important. In less promotional categories, consider banking natural demand and saving promotional spend for quieter periods.
   

2. Consider your market position strategically - Market leaders can benefit from targeted promotions on limited packs or premium SKUs to maximize ROI, while challengers might be better off waiting for periods with less competitive noise.
   

3. Assess category expandability - Allocate promotional funds based on whether your category truly expands during holidays (like beer and snacks) or merely shifts purchase timing (like detergents).
   

4. Ensure visibility parity - Only implement price cuts if you can win the visibility battle with fixture space and displays; otherwise, redirect budget to digital channels or later promotional windows.
   

5. Choose the right execution approach:

   • If promoting: Use simple "save" mechanics rather than complex multi-buys and ensure availability in convenience formats

   • If holding price but amplifying media: Use occasion-based creative that connects with holiday consumption

   • If sitting out entirely: Clearly communicate the strategic intent internally and track performance to redeploy saved spend when shopper attention rebounds