Stress Testing the 2026 Commercial Plan

In the FMCG world, annual commercial plans are the backbone of growth. These plans outline expected volume, value, and profit targets for the year, with detailed assumptions about promotions, pricing, new product development (NPD), and account execution.

But what if those assumptions prove too optimistic?

Borrowing a proven methodology from the financial sector, FMCG companies can apply stress testing to their 2026 Commercial Plan. Much like a bank tests its balance sheet under economic shocks, a commercial stress test simulates adverse but plausible scenarios to assess plan resilience. The result: a sharper, more robust plan that protects margin and avoids last-minute firefighting.

What does a stress test for a commercial plan look like?

A stress test is a simulation of one or more downside scenarios applied to the commercial plan. It is designed to answer questions such as:

• What if inflation accelerates again?

• What if we cannot push through our cost price increases?

• What if key innovations miss their targets?

• What if a major retailer enforces tougher terms or delists a line?

  
  

The objective is not to predict failure, but to understand where the plan is most vulnerable—and what contingency actions are needed.

Is your plan resilient to adverse market trends?

1. Define adverse scenarios

Start by building a set of realistic but challenging assumptions. These can be external (market-driven), internal (execution-driven), or retailer-specific.

Examples: Consumer demand softens in Q2 due to ongoing inflation, reducing base sales by 3%. A competitor launches a surprise price cut, undercutting three of your key SKUs. A planned NPD launch misses its ship date and is delayed by one quarter. A major customer refuses a proposed price increase.

These scenarios should reflect your own market dynamics, such as in the UK, where discounter growth, EPR and HFSS restrictions, and price sensitivity likely remain key forces in 2026.

2. Build a scenario matrix

Quantify the impact of these stress scenarios across key levers:

When Accuris creates stress tests for its clients, we mainly look at these levers:

- Base volume shortfall 

- Promo ROI deterioration 

- Innovation failure 

- Trade term shifts 

- Mix erosion (premium to value)

We then proceed to model the impact on sales and gross margin and bring everything together in scenarios.

Scenario	Volume Impact	Gross Margin	ROI	Net Revenue	Mitigation Needed
Base Case	-	42%	1.4	£160m	-
Moderate Stress	-3% base, 15% lower promo ROI	39%	1.0	£155m	Tighten promo calendar
Severe Stress	-5% base, 30% promo underperformance, NPD flop	36%	0.6	£149m	NPD contingency, reduce tail promos

3. Assess internal fragility

We recommend not to stop at external threats: test your internal assumptions too:

• What if our supply chain cannot fulfil projected promotional volumes?

• What if our forecast for price elasticity is not realistic, but anchored to outliers?

• Are we over-relying on a single account, brand, or quarter?

For instance, a plan heavily weighted toward promotions at the largest retailer or acceptance of price increases may be exposed if either slips.

4. Reverse stress test: where is the breaking point?

A reverse stress test works backwards: under what conditions would the plan fail?

• What level of cannibalisation would fully offset the incremental profit from your top promotion?

• How far can your lead SKU fall in volume before contribution margin drops below target?

• What discount level from a competitor would neutralise your price increase?

These thresholds help you create early warning system, and align commercial teams on what risks must be actively managed.

5. Use results to adjust the plan

Once the stress test reveals which elements of the plan are fragile or overexposed, concrete mitigation actions should follow.

Suppose your 2026 plan includes a premium instant coffee NPD expected to deliver £3 million in contribution margin. The reverse stress test reveals that this depends on achieving 70% weighted distribution across top 4 retailers by Q3. However, your sell-in tracker shows delayed acceptance from one major customer. In response, you might:

• Postpone a lower-priority launch planned in the same category to free up trade marketing support and field resources.

• Reallocate promotional spend from Q2 to Q3 to support listing acceleration.

• Prepare a revised volume contribution scenario for your CFO to assess whether to adjust the sales budget.

Stress testing is only useful if it leads to decisive action. This action should be based not on gut feel, but on quantified exposure and mitigation potential.

Conclusion: A safety net for your 2026 Planning

The 2026 Commercial Plan must not only be ambitious, it must be resilient. By applying a structured stress test methodology, FMCG leaders can pressure-test assumptions, reduce exposure to common risks, and develop more stable paths to growth.

Whether led by the RGM team, commercial finance, or the sales director, stress testing should become a standard step in the planning cycle. In a world of volatility, it is not just good governance—it is good business.

Would you trust a bank that does not run stress tests? Then do not bet your P&L on a plan that is not tested either. Your CFO and your customers will be thankful!

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