The Heavy Toll of Over-Promoting

From Promotion Fatigue to Zero-Based Promo Planning

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Years of aggressive discounting and repetitive deals have led to widespread promotion fatigue – where incremental gains decrease and margins erode. Promotion plans in many companies have become a patchwork of copy-pasted calendars, losing focus and lacking strategy. The result is a cycle of over-promotion, value erosion, and shoppers conditioned to wait for the next promotion. In fact, our analysis reveals that over 94% of promotional sales do not generate true incremental category revenue, with 35% simply subsidising loyal shoppers who would have paid full price anyway.

94% of promotions do not generate incremental revenue for the category

Promotion fatigue affects virtually every category we researched – from soft drinks and coffee to pet food, confectionery, household products, personal care, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, biscuits, dairy, and even fresh foods. The symptoms are familiar: deep discounts and multi-buy offers spike volume briefly, but they often train consumers to wait for the next deal, undermining baseline sales. One UK snack brand, for example, ran the same “2 for £X” multi-buy offer for three years; while it initially boosted volume, over time it encouraged pantry loading and eroded the baseline, ultimately ceasing to drive real category growth. In cases like this, heavy promotion not only fails to add genuine new sales – it actively dilutes long-term revenue by shifting purchases in time or cannibalising other products thereby downgrading value (pay per unit). Simply put, too many promotions with similar mechanics keep manufacturers trapped in an endless cycle of diminishing returns.

Why Conventional Promo Planning Falls Short

How did we end up here? It is common to find annual promo calendars built by simply rolling over last year’s plan with only minor tweaks. Junior teams repeat events that “seemed to work” before, and underperforming deals linger due to internal habit or retailer expectations. Over time this promotion rut creates bloated calendars stuffed with overlapping offers that lack clear purpose. Retail partners, in turn, struggle to weave these fragmented supplier plans into something coherent, often resulting in clashing promotions or unintended cannibalisation across brands. The strategic intent of promotions – to drive incremental revenue and category growth – gets lost amid the volume chase.

Several factors reinforce this ineffective status quo. Internally, teams face pressure to hit short-term volume targets and to satisfy major retailers’ expectations. Externally, shopper behaviour and market conditions evolve – but an inherited promo plan might ignore these shifts. For instance, as consumers gravitate towards premium or healthier options, a brand that keeps pushing only its cheapest products on promotion will miss the chance to trade shoppers up. A major dairy manufacturer learned this the hard way: after launching a premium range, they continued promoting only the core value line. The premium SKU never featured in any deal and underperformed despite high interest, eventually getting delisted. Traditional planning failed here because promotions were on autopilot, disconnected from the broader category strategy and shopper trends.

The cumulative impact of these habits is margin destruction and missed opportunities. Promotions that are not aligned to strategy often devolve into mere giveaways – effectively paying loyal customers to buy products they would have purchased anyway. They can also cannibalise other SKUs in the portfolio or encourage shoppers to downtrade, hurting mix and profitability. In stress-tests of annual plans, Accuris has found that common vulnerabilities include promo ROI deterioration and mix erosion. These issues make the commercial plan fragile, exposing the business to margin shortfalls if the “promo spend for volume” model does not deliver. Clearly, a new approach to promotion planning is needed to break out of this rut.

Zero-Based Promotion Planning: Every Deal Must Earn Its Place

To overcome promotion fatigue, leading FMCG manufacturers are adopting zero-based promotion planning – a fresh approach that rethinks the promo calendar from the ground up. Inspired by zero-based budgeting principles, this method starts each planning cycle with a clean slate. Instead of defaulting to last year’s events, every promotion has to earn its place by demonstrating a worthwhile contribution to growth and profit. In practice, this means a promotion is included only if data shows it will drive incremental value – be it through additional volume, higher revenue, or advancing a strategic objective like trial or premiumisation. The goal is fewer but more effective promotions, aligned to a clear strategy rather than habit or guesswork.

Zero-based planning forces a return to the fundamentals of “why are we promoting?”. Each proposed deal is evaluated on its own merits using robust criteria. Key metrics to consider include profitability, Source of Business® (where do the sales come from), and shopper spend (does the promotion cause customers to spend more in the category or actually trade down and spend less). Manufacturers must assess if a promotion is truly bringing in new business or just shuffling existing volume around. For example, a deep discount on a large pack might boost that item’s sales, but if most of those sales came at the expense of smaller packs or pull-forward buying, the net gain is questionable. With zero-based planning, such cases would be flagged and challenged rather than automatically repeated.

Importantly, zero-based promotion planning is not about doing no promotions at all – it is about doing the right promotions. It shifts the mindset from “promotions for volume at any cost” to “promotions as targeted investments.” Manufacturers begin by defining the role of promotions within their broader commercial strategy. Every promotional event then must serve a clear purpose and meet a performance benchmark. If an event cannot meet a minimum ROI or incremental sales uplift benchmark, it gets cut from the plan. This zero-based scrutiny often leads to leaner calendars with only the highest-value activities included. Accuris’s work with FMCG clients confirms this: a promo reset grounded in data typically yields fewer, better promotions, improved ROI, and a stronger link between strategy and execution.

Data-Driven Diagnostics with Accuris Source of Business®

Executing zero-based promo planning effectively requires granular analytics – and this is where Accuris and its Source of Business® diagnostics come in. Accuris provides manufacturers with the tools and insights to dissect each promotion’s true impact, helping answer the critical questions above. Its proprietary Source of Business® methodology offers a comprehensive view of where promotional sales are coming from and what they are costing. It distinguishes between incremental volume versus merely shifted volume, and flags common profit drains such as cannibalisation and subsidisation. For instance, Accuris will identify if a promotion’s sales mostly came from existing loyal customers, if it cannibalised sales from another product or retailer, or if it actually brought new shoppers or occasions into the category. This level of diagnostic detail is crucial for zero-based planning – it provides the evidence to decide which promotions are genuinely earning their keep.

Crucially, Accuris quantifies the positive and negative effects of promotions in a balanced way. The analysis might show, for example, that a half-price event on a pet food brand attracted some new buyers and trade-up from competitor products, but also caused existing customers to stockpile and skip their next regular-price purchase. By benchmarking promo performance across events and categories, Accuris enables companies to recognise what “good” looks like. They can set rule-sets based on these benchmarks – for example, eliminating low-yield events that drive less than a 1:1 revenue-to-cost return, or avoiding mechanics that consistently trigger high cannibalisation. With the right data in hand, revenue growth managers can confidently cut the dead-weight promotions and reallocate investment to those that truly fuel growth.

Accuris’s promotion diagnostics cover a wide range of categories and promotion types, which helps FMCG teams make segment-level decisions rather than one-size-fits-all ones. Each category – and even segments within a category – can behave differently under promotion. Consider the coffee market: it spans value-focused instant coffee, premium beans, pods, and beyond. Each segment plays a different role and requires a tailored approach to maximise growth. A blanket promotion strategy might over-discount the value tier while neglecting the premium segment that drives profit. Using detailed insights, Accuris helps manufacturers avoid that pitfall. It can reveal, for example, which coffee brands or pack sizes genuinely expand the category versus which are just switching shoppers around. It highlights whether promotions are causing shoppers to upgrade or downgrade their spending. Armed with such segment-level intelligence, a company might decide to reduce deep discounts on large packs that mainly attract bargain hunters, and instead invest in targeted deals on premium or innovative products that bring new value to the category. The same logic applies across soft drinks, personal care, alcohol, or dairy – zero-based planning, supported by Accuris analytics, ensures that each segment’s promotional strategy is grounded in data and aligned with its role in the portfolio.

Moreover, Accuris tracks the impact of different promotion mechanics on consumer behaviour and financial outcomes. Not all promo mechanics are equal – a “Buy One Get One Free” might yield a very different mix of effects compared to a 25% off temporary price reduction. Accuris’s tools measure these impacts by SKU and week, capturing retailer and category cannibalisation, changes in purchasing timing, and customer value dynamics. This allows teams to refine their rule-sets: for instance, they might learn that a multi-buy on a household cleaner leads to excessive pantry stock-up, whereas a smaller discount drives more steady uptake. With such insight, they can stop executing low-yield mechanics and focus on structures that produce a healthier ROI. In summary, the combination of promo ROI benchmarking, Source of Business® diagnostics, and granular segment insights gives manufacturers a powerful toolkit to redesign their promotion programs for maximum effectiveness.

From Fatigue to Sustainable Growth

Shifting from promotion fatigue to a zero-based approach is a transformative journey for an FMCG manufacturer – but one that pays off in both margin improvement and strategic clarity. By ruthlessly focusing on promotional ROI and cutting out the noise of weak promotions, companies can reinvest in activities that truly drive growth. The outcome is not just higher profitability per promotion, but often a healthier long-term brand position: fewer frantic price cuts mean less damage to brand equity and more emphasis on value creation. Manufacturers who have embraced zero-based promotion planning, supported by Accuris’s data-driven guidance, have reported more streamlined promo calendars and higher returns on each event. Instead of chasing volume at any cost, their commercial teams are now crafting promotions that build the business – whether by expanding the category, recruiting new shoppers, or encouraging trading-up to higher-value products.

Perhaps most importantly, this approach brings back a sense of control and intention to commercial strategy. Promotions become purposeful tactics in the marketer’s toolkit rather than reflexive habits. A zero-based plan might feature a mix of events designed for specific outcomes – each vetted against rigorous criteria and benchmarked for success. Everything on the calendar has a reason to be there. The promotion frenzy gives way to a more sustainable promo rhythm that shoppers can appreciate and that shareholders can applaud.

In conclusion, escaping promotion fatigue is entirely achievable with the right mindset and tools. It starts by acknowledging the cost of over-promotion and then choosing to plan differently – building your promo plan from zero, anchored in data-backed decisions. With Accuris’s Source of Business® diagnostics and ROI benchmarks illuminating the path, revenue growth managers and commercial strategists can confidently prune the fluff and focus on high-yield activities. The transition from a diluted, margin-draining promo cycle to a zero-based, ROI-positive strategy is a game-changer. It means promotions will no longer be a blind expenditure, but rather a strategic lever for profitable growth. By moving from promotion fatigue to zero-based planning, FMCG manufacturers can finally get the best of both worlds: the ability to excite shoppers and grow sales without sacrificing the bottom line.

Appendix – References

• Accuris – Zero Based Promotion Planning (PDF) (May 2024) (available on request)

• How Accuris supports premiumisation strategies in coffee (PDF) (August 2025) (available on request)

• Stress Testing the 2026 Commercial Plan (PDF) (May 2025) (available on request)