Resetting Promotion Planning in FMCG: From Copy-Paste to Strategic Growth

Executive Summary

Promotional planning in the FMCG industry is broken. Too often, promotional calendars are copy-pasted from previous years, with only minor adjustments. This approach ignores shifts in shopper behaviour, retailer dynamics, and broader market trends. As a result, brand teams lose sight of the purpose of promotions – to drive incremental revenue and strategic category growth.

This text outlines a new approach to promotional planning. Grounded in zero-based planning and supported by historical effectiveness data, it repositions promotions as tools for driving value, not just volume. At its core is the objective that every promotion must earn its place based on what it adds to the category and to the supplier’s bottom line.

The solution calls for:

·       A clear category strategy

·       A defined role for promotions within that strategy

·       A fresh start with zero-based planning

·       A focus on consumption moments and incremental value

Accuris has worked with leading FMCG companies to implement such resets, and the results speak for themselves: fewer, better promotions; improved ROI; and a clearer link between commercial strategy and in-market execution.

1. The Problem: The Promotional Rut

Promotions have become routine. In many companies, the promotional calendar is often built by juniors opening last year’s Excel file and copying the dates forward. Promotions that "seemed to work" are repeated, while underperforming ones remain due to internal habits or retail expectations.

Over time, this creates several problems:

• Loss of strategic intent: Promotions are no longer tied to growth or category leadership.

• Bloated calendars: Too many promotions, often stacked without synergy or purpose.

• Retailer burden: Retailers must stitch together fragmented supplier calendars into something coherent, often resulting in suboptimal overlap or cannibalisation.

• No reflection of change: Shopper habits, competitive moves, inflation, and media trends are ignored.

Example: A snack brand in the UK had run the same multi-buy offer (2 for £) for three years. While it initially boosted volume, over time it eroded baseline sales, encouraged pantry loading, and stopped driving real category growth. Yet it remained on the calendar due to internal inertia.

2. Why Traditional Planning Fails

Traditional planning is often driven by:

·       Historical precedent: “It is what we did last year.”

·       Retailer expectations: “Tesco expects an offer in week 38.”

·       Commercial pressure: “We need to hit the volume target.”

What gets lost is the broader strategic view:

·       Are we expanding the category?

·       Are we trading shoppers up to higher value packs?

·       Are we differentiating versus competitors?

·       Are we reinforcing brand positioning?

Example: A major dairy brand launched a new premium SKU but continued to promote only its base range. The result? The premium range underperformed and was eventually delisted, despite high consumer interest – simply because it never featured in promotions.

3. The Case for a Promo Reset

A promotion reset is not about doing fewer promotions for the sake of efficiency. It is about designing a plan with intent – grounded in data, aligned with category strategy, and optimised for incremental value.

A reset delivers:

• Simplicity: Fewer, more effective promotions.

• Alignment: Between brand, category and retailer strategy.

• Clarity: Promotions support specific goals (e.g., trial, trade-up, basket size).

• Value: Higher ROI per event, less discount wastage.

Why now?

There has never been a more urgent moment to rethink promotional planning. The availability of granular sales and shopper data—combined with powerful analytical tools like those offered by Accuris—means that brands are no longer forced to rely on guesswork or legacy habits. We now have the capability to measure, model, and optimise every element of a promotion with precision.

At the same time, rising inflation has made consumers more price-sensitive and retailers more focused on delivering visible value. Promotional investments are under greater scrutiny, and the margin for ineffective promotions has shrunk. What worked a few years ago may no longer resonate with today’s shopper.

Moreover, the sustainability of promotional investment is in question. With tighter budgets and growing pressure on profitability, brands can no longer afford to run inefficient promotions simply to “be present.” Every promotion must earn its place by contributing measurable value—whether through incremental volume, revenue, or strategic brand objectives.

In short, the tools are ready, the pressure is real, and the opportunity is significant. Now is the time to reset.

A Promo Reset starts with the fundamentals: what role do promotions play in this category? What are the key consumption moments? How responsive are shoppers? Are promotions the right tool for growing the category or are they a necessity to protect market share?

4. The Strategic Solution

Step 1: Define a Category Strategy

The foundation of any effective promotional plan is a clearly defined category strategy. Without it, promotions risk becoming a tactical patchwork – disconnected from broader commercial goals and often working at cross-purposes across brands and channels.

Defining a category strategy means articulating what the category needs to grow – not just in terms of volume, but in terms of value, penetration, frequency, and brand mix.

Illustration: Premium Ice Cream Category

Take the premium ice cream category in a European grocery market. A few years ago, category growth was driven by mainstream tubs and price-driven promotions. However, recent shopper behaviour shows a shift: consumers are increasingly willing to pay more for indulgent formats, such as Belgian chocolate sticks or dairy-free novelties.

The category strategy here might be:

·       Grow premium penetration through trial

·       Build value per basket by encouraging shoppers to trade up from multipacks to indulgent singles

·       Focus on off-season occasions (e.g. autumn snacking) to de-seasonalise the category

Step 2: Define the Role of Promotions

Promotions can serve many different purposes:

·       Drive trial of new products or formats

·       Support increased frequency among existing buyers

·       Encourage trade-up to higher-value packs

·       Create basket-building cross-promotions

·       Defend against competitor activity

·       Amplify seasonal or event-based consumption

Illustration: Instant Coffee Launch

Imagine a brand launching a new barista-style instant coffee aimed at premium shoppers. If the promotional objective is trial, then a price cut or introductory bundle with an existing product might be most effective. If instead the brand mistakenly uses a deep multi-buy (“buy 3 for the price of 2”), it might attract value-driven bulk buyers – completely missing the premium shopper and undermining perceived quality.

Step 3: Audit Historical Performance

Before designing a new plan, it is critical to understand what has and has not worked in the past.

Illustration: Soft Drinks Case

An audit for a soft drinks manufacturer revealed that 1.5L bottles promoted at £1.25 drove strong short-term volume but caused a consistent dip in 500ml bottle sales and post-promo base erosion. Conversely, promoting 330ml cans in 6-pack formats created less cannibalisation, stronger net revenue, and attracted different shopper missions.

Key insight:Data should be granular. Look at mechanic × SKU × retailer level – because results vary significantly by context.

Step 4: Understand Shopper Behaviour and Consumption Moments

Promotional planning must start from shopper realities, not internal calendars.

Illustration: Cereal Bars

A cereal bar brand discovered through consumption research that many shoppers used its products not as breakfast, but as a mid-morning snack in offices. This shifted its promotional calendar away from “Back to School” campaigns towards targeting the “new year new habits” moment in January and office-based meal deals.

Step 5: Focus on Incremental Value

Prioritise promotions that:

·       Expand the category

·       Encourage trade-up

·       Create competitive switching

Illustration: Premium Chocolate

A chocolate brand in the Netherlands ran a “2 for €4” offer across its range. Sales spiked, but most buyers were already loyal, and overall category volume remained flat. When the brand tested a trial-size version of its dark chocolate with a “€1 for 1” campaign at train stations, it reached new buyers and increased full-size purchases in following weeks.

Step 6: Build from Zero

Abandon last year’s calendar. Start from scratch. Accuris guides your team through the process.

Illustration: Yoghurts and Zero-Based Planning

A yoghurt manufacturer in France ran 24 promotional events in the previous year. After a zero-based planning reset, only 13 events remained – but the calendar was simpler, better timed, and focused on high-potential SKUs. The new plan delivered +17% promotional ROI and stronger retailer alignment.

5. The Accuris Approach

We begin by conducting a Promo Effectiveness Diagnostic, using historical data to evaluate the true impact of past promotional activities. This includes not only uplift but also cannibalisation, stockpiling effects, retail switching, category effects, upgrading and downgrading and net revenue outcomes. Brands are often surprised to learn which promotions were quietly underperforming despite appearing successful on the surface.

Next, we apply Promo Value Modelling to simulate the expected outcomes of alternative mechanics, pack sizes, and timing. This forward-looking modelling helps clients prioritise events that are most likely to deliver incremental value—whether through category expansion, shopper trade-up, or competitive switching.

Through our Zero-Based Planning Workshops, we work hands-on with cross-functional teams to rebuild the promotional calendar from scratch. Each promotion must earn its place based on its strategic fit, historical performance, and projected return.

Finally, we support clients in developing a clear, actionable Category Strategy that defines the role of promotions within a broader commercial plan. This ensures alignment not just within the supplier organisation, but also in joint planning with retail partners.

A recent example illustrates the impact:A leading confectionery brand in the Nordics partnered with Accuris to rework its promotional approach. By simplifying its calendar and focusing only on high-value SKUs and shopper-relevant moments, the brand reduced its number of promotions by 30%. At the same time, it improved promotional ROI by 22%, proving that fewer, better-planned promotions can drive superior results.

7. Conclusion: Time to Reset

Promotions are too expensive to be wasted on autopilot.

A reset gives your team back control. It lets you align promotions with what the category needs and what your brand stands for. It allows you to benefit from key consumption periods, use retailers’ strengths, simplify your calendar, and drive real growth – not just volume.

Schedule a 30min meeting to discuss how we can help your business with a promotion reset.

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